Abstract

We present an analysis of the magnitude of the threat. We begin with a mathematical model derived from empirical data of the spread of Code Red I in July, 2001. We discuss techniques subsequently employed for achieving greater virulence by Code Red II and Nimda. In this context, we develop and evaluate several new, highly virulent possible techniques: hit-list scanning (which creates a Warhol worm), permutation scanning (which enables self-coordinating scanning), and use of Internet-sized hit-lists (which creates a flash worm).

We then turn to the to the threat of surreptitious worms that spread more slowly but in a much harder to detect ``contagion'' fashion. We demonstrate that such a worm today could arguably subvert upwards of 10,000,000 Internet hosts. We also consider robust mechanisms by which attackers can control and update deployed worms.

In conclusion, we argue for the pressing need to develop a ``Center for Disease Control'' analog for virus- and worm-based threats to national cybersecurity, and sketch some of the components that would go into such a Center.

• View the full text of this paper in HTML and PDF. Until August 2003, you will need your USENIX membership identification in order to access the full papers.
  The Proceedings are published as a collective work, © 2002 by the USENIX Association. All Rights Reserved. Rights to individual papers remain with the author or the author's employer. Permission is granted for the noncommercial reproduction of the complete work for educational or research purposes. USENIX acknowledges all trademarks within this paper.

• If you need the latest Adobe Acrobat Reader, you can download it from Adobe's site.

• To become a USENIX Member, please see our Membership Information.